Stabledash Live · · 13 min

Why Coinbase Is No Longer Just a Crypto Brokerage shares Artemis Research Analyst Alex Weseley

With Alex Weseley

Key takeaways

  • Alex Weseley says about half of Coinbase revenue comes from subscriptions and services, including about $300 million last quarter from stablecoin reserve income and its deal with Circle.

  • Artemis predicts stablecoin supply reaching $3 trillion and agentic commerce reaching $5 trillion by 2031, with USDC potentially taking 30% of the stablecoin market.

  • Weseley says x402, incubated by Coinbase, dominates real agentic payment volume, while Circle and Stripe are the main challengers.

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Summary

An Artemis researcher argues the market misreads Coinbase as a brokerage when stablecoin income and agent payments are becoming central to its business.

Alex Weseley, a researcher at Artemis, says Coinbase took in about $300 million last quarter from stablecoin reserve income and its deal with Circle. He argues the company is no longer mainly a trading business: about half of its revenue now comes from subscriptions and services.

More than a brokerage

Weseley co-wrote the Artemis piece "Why Coinbase Wins in an AI Native Finance World." In it, he describes Coinbase building a stack around Base, the x402 protocol it helped incubate, developer tooling, and its revenue sharing relationship with Circle and USDC. Under that arrangement, he says, Coinbase gets 100% of the stablecoin yield on its platform and about half of the residual revenue off platform.

“Being able to sit on treasuries is one of the the the better business models out there.”
Alex Weseley

The valuation gap

Alex Weseley says Circle trades at about two times Coinbase on an enterprise value to next twelve month earnings multiple. "I'm not sure Circle should command such a higher premium over over Coinbase," he says, adding that the two values should likely be much closer. He sees sitting on treasuries as one of the better business models out there.

The 2031 projections

Artemis predicts total stablecoin supply will hit $3 trillion by 2031, which Weseley calls a more conservative call than $3 trillion by 2030. He also points to an estimate of $5 trillion in agentic commerce by 2031. He thinks USDC, which he calls the largest regulated, GENIUS-compliant stablecoin in the US, could grow to 30% market share in the next five years.

Agents on Base

According to Artemis data, x402 dominates real agentic payment volume compared with other protocols, and much of that activity runs on Base. Weseley estimates agentic commerce could add $100M to $500M in sequencer revenue to Coinbase, which already offers AgentKit, wallet infrastructure and agentic market routing.

He names Circle and Stripe as the biggest challengers. Stripe launched its MPP payment protocol in March and has a large existing user base, and Circle announced an agent SDK alongside its earnings.

In Weseley's view, Coinbase's value rests more and more on stablecoin float and agent payment infrastructure than on trading. He expects stablecoins, agentic commerce and tokenization to keep growing through the year.

Coinbase, Circle, Artemis, and Stripe come up most.

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